Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
